And youre able to say, oh, the rivers high, or the river is low. And thats a word that youre hearing a lot more, is megadrought, not just this temporary state of drought. Experts say it wont be a silver bullet, but could stave off near-term danger. The shoreline it creates, in a red rock desert, is longer than the entire U.S. West Coast.. Experts say that the reservoir may dry up completely in a few decades. Theyre already low, because the entire watershed has been experiencing above-average temperatures and below-average river flows since the year 2000. And there is some evidence that this dry period would have happened without our greenhouse gas emissions. Extremely dry years that produce eye-popping statistics tend to grab officials by the shoulders and give them a good shake. John Dankosky works with the radio team to create our weekly show, and is helping to build our State of Science Reporting Network. The regions been looking warily at the reservoirs along this long river that winds its way from Colorados Rocky Mountains all the way to Mexico, just shy of the Gulf of California. Performance cookies are used to understand and analyze the key performance indexes of the website which helps in delivering a better experience for the visitors. Theres an increasing body of work that I would say puts climate changes fingerprints on this megadrought. : Subscribe to the weekly Climate Point newsletter, READ MORE: Latest climate change news from USA TODAY. As a key ingredient in everything from asphalt to microchips, scientists are trying to make sand extraction more ecologically friendly. For terms of use and more information, visit our policies pages athttp://www.sciencefriday.com/about/policies/. What we're seeing now is almost a scenario in which some form of 'fill Mead first' could happen by default in as little as six years." Between the drought years of 2000-2005, Lake Powell lost 13 . The Lower Basin states of Arizona and Nevada have begun to see their deliveries from the river curtailed. Today, the lake has about 13 million acre-feet left, said Eric Kuhn, general manager of the Colorado River Water Conservation District, which is helping to oversee the study. And so this creates a lot of potential problems downstream in the Grand Canyon, it creates management problems for the reservoir itself in Glen Canyon, and most importantly, it jeopardizes the upper[Colorado River]basins ability to meet its delivery obligation downstream, Balken said. Invest in quality science journalism by making a donation to Science Friday. And you know, those are cutbacks that users are actually going to feel and that municipal leaders, farmers, tribal users in Arizona are having to plan for right now. And this is just the beginning of what. As the drought continues and global warming evaporates water supplying the reservoirs, each reservoir isn't far from dead pool, which is when the water level is too low to flow downstream or power the turbines that provide hydroelectric power. People should definitely not feel like the agencies managing the Colorado River have it under control, he said. They werent able to come up with an agreement. Necessary cookies are absolutely essential for the website to function properly. So the question is, how bad is it going to get? Water levels in Lake Powell dropped to a new record low on Tuesday. But while Lake Mead . Understanding and explaining the depth of the dryness is up to climate scientists throughout the basin. "Its unfortunate that thelargely natural occurrence of a drought has coincided with this increasing warming due to greenhouse gases," said Flavio Lehner, aprofessor of atmospheric sciences at Cornell University. LinkedIn sets this cookie to store performed actions on the website. Issued by Microsoft's ASP.NET Application, this cookie stores session data during a user's website visit. Give us an idea, if you would, just how low the supply is in the basins reservoirs right now. The emergency action would increase Lake Powell's level about 16 feet after an April record low of 2,522 feet. And you know, thats way beyond any sort of voluntary conservation that Arizona has done up until this point. Nearly all of Utah, New Mexico, . These cookies do not allow the tracking of navigation on other websites and the data collected is not combined or shared with third parties. Lake Mead, which is fed by Lake Powell upstream, would likely be the first of the two reservoirs to hit dead-pool levels. And thats because some of these past agreements have put that state in the most vulnerable position for cutbacks. The Southwest United States is wrapping up an abnormally dry winter. If that does come to pass, Tyrell said he is fairly confident we can deal with worst case scenario if it ever happens.. Subscribe to the weekly Climate Point newsletter, Latest climate change news from USA TODAY, Western water crisis looms as California complicates critical water deal. An acre-foot is the amount of water needed to fill one acre of land to a height of one foot. By Jan. 29, when the "after" image was taken, Shasta was up to 56%. Lake Powell has been called Jewel of the Colorado by the federal agency that built it, the Bureau of Reclamation. The dam stopped up the Colorado River, creating Lake Mead, the biggest reservoir in the United States. Grim Future for Lake Powell Water levels in Lake Powell are at record lows. Those are Colorado, Wyoming, New Mexico, and Utah. In a wetter year, it will release 9 million acre feet to Mead. Newsweek reached out to the Central Arizona Project for comment. Before that, he covered the worlds largest sockeye salmon fishery for KDLG in Dillingham, Alaska. And even the people who say, you know, oh, just wait for it to get wet again, know that changes have to be made because of that fundamental supply-demand imbalance. Because of the record dry soils and lagging snowpack, theyrelikely headed to their lowest levelssince they were filled decades ago. The water in Lake Mead on Wednesday reached a new low 1070.6 feet above sea level since it was filled in the 1930's, according to data provided by the US Bureau of Reclamation. And this is just the beginning of what could happen if the lake keeps drying up. LinkedIn sets this cookie to remember a user's language setting. As snowpack runoff disappeared into dry ground instead of hitting the reservoirs, engineers calculated a 79% chance Lake Powell will fall below its minimum target water height of 3,525 feet above sea level next year. What are the effects of climate change? If its dry there, that means many more problems as the water flows downstream. I mean, what sort of disputes are coming to the forefront because of this? But the last time it was anywhere close to that level was 1999. By January, the bureau projects water levels at Lake Mead to fall to 1,065.85 feet nine feet below the first shortage trigger elevation. JOHN DANKOSKY: This is Science Friday. The dry years are what force the really important steps forward in the policy community.. Lake Powell, the nation's second-largest reservoir and one that provides water and power to millions of people in southern California, has reached its lowest levels since its first filling in. Such is the nature of the climate change beast that we have unleashed.. A patchwork of other measures has been deployed throughout the Colorado River basin throughout the past few years, as drought and demand keep sapping reservoirs. Colorado River tribes pose statewide leasing idea, Risks to Lake Mead, Colorado River intensifying greatly, federal officials say, Arizona basketball | Tommy Lloyd on the wild, fun nature of college hoops | Feb. 28, 2023, Millions at Risk of Slipping Into Poverty as COVID-Era SNAP Benefits Set to End, More than 300 words have been added to the English dictionary. Earlier this year, the Bureau of Reclamation released about 500,000 acre-feet from Flaming Gorge Reservoir in Utah and Wyoming to Lake Powell, increasing its elevation about 16 feet. And thats really what were watching right now, is how low is Lake Mead going to go? This story is part of ongoing coverage of the Colorado River, produced by KUNC with financial support from the Walton Family Foundation. The government predicts that Lake Mead's water level will fall below 1,075 feet (328 meters) by June, the level . What happens if Lake Powell runs out of water? Whether the six-year cycle of 2000-05 repeats itself is anybodys guess, said Pat Tyrrell, Wyoming state engineer who has been involved in the Upper Basin water talks. "The West might look different," said Hasencamp. As part of 2019s Drought Contingency Plan, water managers agreed that the reservoirs water should be kept above 3,525 feet to provide a buffer before it got even lower, giving the agencies in charge some time to come up with a fix. JOHN DANKOSKY: When you use the term megadrought, that sounds like a newer term. These reservoirs are as empty now as when they started filling Glen Canyon Dam in the 1960s, said John Fleck, director of the University of New Mexicos water resources program. A dry spell like the one from 2000-2005 could have serious consequences for the lake. And so when you have snow thats melting off, it gets soaked up into the ground before it flows into a river or flows into a reservoir. Despite the storms that brought heavy rain and snow to California and other Western states in January, experts say it would take years of such weather to replenish the West's water resources. It does not store any personal data. Its important to differentiate between Lake Powell running dry versus Lake Powell dropping below elevation 3,490 [feet], Taylor Hawes, Colorado River program director at the Nature Conservancy, told The Hill in an interview. Hes also been a long-time guest host on Science Friday. Your California Privacy Rights/Privacy Policy. 1998 - 2023 Nexstar Media Inc. | All Rights Reserved. He covers the Colorado River basin. LUKE RUNYON: Well, I dont have a crystal ball. Lake Powell is also a popular tourist destination for water recreation. Lake Powell is a few hundred feet above dead-pool level. The Glen Canyon Dam, D'deest'in Htsaa, marks where the water level in Lake Powell on the Colorado River, reaches. Lake Powell is also a popular tourist destination for water recreation. And really, what were seeing in the basin is that warming of just a couple degrees has the potential to completely upend how the water cycle functions in the Southwest. Thats about the amount of water that our soils are behind in terms of what they normally would have, Meyer said. Chef Bun Lai explains how to see this summers cicada swarm as a sustainable snack. With the dropping water levels, this industry is likely to be extremely impacted, as seen by a boating ramp that used to. which could funnel up to 300,000 acre-feet from Powell.One of those projects, Utah's Lake Powell pipeline to St. George, would . Used by Yahoo to provide ads, content or analytics. JOHN DANKOSKY: Local science stories of national significance. In the short term, yes. One leg would involve reducing water demand by farmers and cities in the Upper Basin. Subscribe to our Daily Headlines newsletter. With modest reductions in flow, they would be meaningful.. However, experts have warned such measures cannot be a long-term solution. water level is too low to flow downstream, Everyone Practices Cancel Culture | Opinion, Deplatforming Free Speech is Dangerous | Opinion. And it's not a backroom voodoo mystery that only fortune tellers can forecast. Officials say the lowest level at which Glen Canyon Dam can . According to the National Park Service, contaminants from the newly exposed shorelines are reentering warm, shallow areas and becoming more concentrated. Depending on how you define "dry up." It's doubtful that all 1,450 miles of the Colorado River will turn to dust, even if we drain Lake Mead and Lake Powell, the nation's two largest. As of August 10, water levels were measured to be 3,534.51 feet above sea level. JOHN DANKOSKY: Yeah, so a lot of people, a lot of wildlife, and many, many jurisdictions, too. But a new study warns that the lake could virtually dry up in as few as six years if the region gets a repeat of the dry spell it experienced from 2000 to 2005. The latest projections from the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation show there's a. In . The D4 category is something that is only supposed to be designated when youre seeing conditions that are so extreme theyre only happening once every 50 to once every 100 years, said Becky Bolinger, Colorados assistant state climatologist. Used to help protect the website against Cross-Site Request Forgery attacks. He spent two years at Aspen Public Radio, mainly reporting on the resort economy, the environment and the COVID-19 pandemic. Plastic milk jugs inexplicably dangle from the tops of the dead trees along the shore. A large portion of the water in the Colorado River and Lake Powell comes from high-mountain snowmelt in Colorado and Wyoming. Meanwhile, Lake Powells projected decline in 2021 recently triggered the Upper Basin plan to be used for the first time. Created by Bluecadet. Last week, the lake reached a disturbing new. Lake Powell has many functions, one of them as a major recreation center for fishermen, houseboaters and other tourists. Water levels dipped below 3,525 feet the last major milestone before a serious threat to hydropower generation at the Glen Canyon Dam. Dead pool is 3,370 feet. We don't know if the dam will operate as expected. All information these cookies collect is aggregated and therefore anonymous. Powell is not drying out in a vacuum.. The Glen Canyon Dam forms Lake Powell and the Hoover Dam forms Lake Mead. Twitter sets this cookie to integrate and share features for social media and also store information about how the user uses the website, for tracking and targeting. All rights reserved. If you do not allow these cookies we will not know when you have visited our site, and will not be able to monitor its performance. On the contrary, he said, its actually become this locus of huge uncertainty, which doesnt allow downstream users to make effective plans, because they dont know what their allocations are going to be. But there is still this fundamental supply-demand imbalance in the Colorado River basin. California broke from six other Western states in proposal to cut Colorado River use as water levels reach historic lows. The bureau's report for June, added on to previously scheduled reservoir updates for January, April and August, paints a dire picture. The Department of the Interior had asked the seven states of the Colorado River Compact to come up with a plan to cut between 2 and 4 million acre-feet of water by January. These cookies will be stored in your browser only with your consent. We are likely witnessing the end of Lake Powell as we knew it in the 80s and 90s, Balken said. Hes a reporter at KUNC, based in Fort Collins, Colorado. The four Upper Basin states Colorado, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming are devising a three-legged stool plan to protect Lake Powell. If the drought and excessive water use continues, Lake Mead could reach dead pool in the next two years and Lake Powell could soon follow. Now what? It is something in peer-reviewed, published science for decades and decades that the managers of the Colorado River have been ignoring.. Newsweek previously. Its not just like, you get a miracle year and youre out of it. The water level at Lake Mead is sitting at just 39%, while Lake Powell is at 36%. If Lake Powell recedes much further, one of the nations largest reservoirs could be at risk of no longer generating hydropower for the region. Correction: A previous version of this story indicated that 3,490 feet is Lake Powell's "dead pool" level. Record-breaking high temperatures dragged well into fall. Lake Powell is in crisis. This segment is part ofThe State of Science, a series featuring science stories from public radio stations across the United States. A drying climate and withering heat in recent years have pummeled the region: water cuts to farmers, dry wells, mass fish and bird die-offs, and depleted reservoirs that have decimated hydropower output. But its fundamental purpose under the federal law that created it is to serve as a water insurance policy for the Colorado River Basin. LUKE RUNYON: Sure, so much of the attention in the basin goes towards the rivers largest reservoirs, which also happen to be the biggest reservoirs in the entire United States. If Lake Powell recedes much further, one of the nation's largest reservoirs could be at risk of no longer generating hydropower for the region. Tanya Trujillo, the departments assistant secretary, sent a letter to the seven states in the Colorado River basin warning of cutbacks to the water supply for Nevada, Arizona and California. So Im guessing over the next several years, as policies are negotiated, youre going to hear a lot more about how tribes are being involved in that process. Even though conditions may be evolving and getting even worse, we dont really have a way to depict that, because D4, thats that ceiling, she said. Shes a big fan of stories related to strange animal facts and dystopian technology. Get up-to-the-minute news sent straight to your device. Glen Canyon Dam can release water below minimum power pool through bypass jets until an elevation of 3,370 feet, which is then the top of dead pool and no further water can be released. You cant go into a drought like that today if its half full. More. The sp_landing is set by Spotify to implement audio content from Spotify on the website and also registers information on user interaction related to the audio content. "That has brought everything to a head much earlier than people thought it would.". Even hardy desert plants, the ones well-adapted to water scarcity, have struggled. Is this as bad as climate change is going to get in shrinking the snowpacks in the headwaters? Satellite images show the dramatic impact of the 22-year-long mega-drought that . Conditions have been deteriorating across the river basin since the summer of 2020. KUNC is solely responsible for its editorial coverage. Lake Powell, the nation's second-largest reservoir and one thatprovides water and power to millions of people in southern California, has reached its lowest levels since its first filling in the 1960s. Secondly, Phoenix does not get it's water from Lake Powell. The cookie is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Analytics". For the Upper Basin states, the reservoir storage has ensured theyll be able to meet their legal requirement under the 1922 Colorado River Compact to deliver 75 million acre feet to the Lower Basin every 10 years. Udall questioned the validity of using the years before 2000 because the years 1990 to 1999 were very wet and not representative of the weather we see now. It doesn't strain the mind to imagine us losing power within a year. The low levels arent just causing hand-wringing among the Wests water officials. Its 90% of the water supply to Las Vegas, 50% to Phoenix, effectively 100% to Tucson and 25% to Los Angeles, said Udall. The second largest reservoir in the U.S. by total capacity after Lake Mead, Lake Powell spans the Utah/Arizona border, and is an artificial lake created from damming the Colorado River. Glen Canyon Dam in Lake Powell near Page, Arizona on July 4, 2010. The loss of generation from the lake would deprive the grid of about a quarter million households worth of power. And it would increase the likelihood of cutbacks in river water deliveries to Arizona, in particular. Levels on Lake Powell, which stores water for the. Cookie used to remember the user's Disqus login credentials across websites that use Disqus. The April-July forecast for Colorado River runoff into Lake Powell is 74 percent of average. The proposal, negotiated in secret for more than a year, would ship river water to Prescott and Williams on the north to Sierra Vista and Bens, Depending on what assumptions are made in its computer models, the risks of catastrophically low levels at Mead by 2026 have jumped three to s. Tony graduated from Northwestern University and started at the Star in 1997. AWSALB is an application load balancer cookie set by Amazon Web Services to map the session to the target. Throughout the history of the American West, water issues have shown their ability to both unite and divide communities. In March, the reservoir passed an important threshold. If the reservoirs reach dead-pool levels, more than a million people using the electricity could be required to find new power sources. Regardless of what they decide, theyre dealing with a steadily diminishing supply. Some evidence that this dry period would have happened without our greenhouse gas emissions to Colorado. That I would say puts climate changes fingerprints on this megadrought year, it release. An acre-foot is the amount of water if its dry there, that sounds a. Even hardy desert plants, the environment and the data collected is not combined or shared with third parties come... You cant go into a drought like that TODAY if its half full behind in terms of what they,... On the website that produce eye-popping statistics tend to grab officials by shoulders... 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