Bill Batchelor The NEW, BEST way to absorb all of this monetary wisdom is to subscribe to the newsletter and boot camp using the boxes to the right -> I agree with Pete. I do believe blockchain technology and people like Charles Hoskinson and ADA are interested in uses beyond money grabs. Does that mean investing in Berkshire Hathaway is speculating? Doingone transaction burns 215 kilowatt-hours of electricity, enough to run the entire MMM household for more than a full month, or to power an electric car formore than 800 miles of driving. For me, the answer is wealth rule #1 from MMM: You Dont Try to Gamble Your Way to Wealth, http://www.mrmoneymustache.com/2013/09/20/wealth-advice-that-should-be-obvious/. Or streaming music, and streaming movies! January 2, 2018, 8:53 pm. Nothing is 100% guaranteed in life. Im always reminded of VHS versus beta max but on a few thousand options scale (rather then two) and a higher risk if you choose wrong (at current prices). Without that money is worthless as a store of value, which also makes it worthless as a long term stable median of exchange. How much of your net worth is in this investment? Please let it go. And just as a warning, I am always going to tell you that price speculation is a bad way to spend your life. Do you really believe that we should go all-in when it comes to trusting our institutional financial establishments? 3. But I hope the good times continue for a long while! How can people who are so good about thinking outside the box when it comes to retirement, are so bad at thinking outside the box when it comes to new technologies? January 3, 2018, 1:08 pm. When the internet / electric / grid is down, I cant pay him via my iphone and at the moment, the kid wants cash. Stocks and bonds and real estate can all enter into bubbles. Imagine he same concept but at least an old beta max has some residual value if you still own tapes, Another great comparison. Take a look at this shot from the website coinmarketcap.com, and observe the preposterous herd behavior in real life: Fig.1: Various cryptocurrencies, ranked by how many people have been fooled. Regular money has nothing behind it either. I would like to learn more about the world of paid website commentators/shills. Love this blog and agree with most of your opinions on Bitcoin. Michael https://www.statista.com/statistics/326707/bitcoin-price-index/. Sure.. that is until the government keep printing it until its worthless. It is also an opportunity to get the 2 Billion unbanked people on the planet to also enjoy a level playing field through this new Internet of Money. After that crash, the industry re-invented, pushed forward tech and then Google etc came and actually started making some real hard cash! The Money Mustache Community . It's as simple as getting any brokerage account and buying the Vanguard Exchange traded fund called VTI, or getting a Betterment account and setting your allocation to at least 90% stocks. January 5, 2018, 1:18 pm, Right and this entire blog is my personal quest to nudge the worlds collective opinions such that ppl value more of the same things I do. We save up our purchases. Speculation is great. Transactions are happening instantaneously and at as low a cost as a Satoshi! Heck no. Bitcoin is used for some pretty awful things, the accountant at my dads prior employer stole $500,000+ and likely hid it from the authorities. 1) If gold is a bubble, it is a > 5000 year one Its odd he believes people require a government to establish a system of trust and cooperation. This has resulted in the Bitcoin blockchain ledger being nearly immutable. Its well written and pretty obviously by a real software and math person. Note that if you remove any of these essential elements, youve made the system effectively worthless. Its inevitable as brick and mortar banks and finance will become extinct! You have failed to separate the technology from specific implementations. Well said, Bill. On top of that, wages are not keeping up with the rising costs of living. They have been making a killing. Id love to see MMM fingernail futures one day on my ticker chart. Take risks, but keep educated and with good money management. However look at Japan and a growing number of countries now taking bitcoin as payment. There is already ways to pay and use your crypto currencies and companies like request.network are working on ways facilitate swapping with cryptos and fiat using oracles and smart contracts on the ethereum network. Gold is not necessarily a speculation. Youre confusing outcome with process. January 2, 2018, 6:23 pm. Why do you think so? As for USD working has many reasons, required to participate in the largest economy in the world, the military power behind said economy, etc. Do not give up. Even a significant percentage would be really stupid. Environmental issues aside, mining with hardware you already own for other purposes is about as close to getting something for nothing as there has ever been in the world, it lets you make money with something that is only otherwise useful as a way to play PC games. Its a speculation, pretty much like buying gold. When everyone hypes something as the solution for everything it is going to be bad. Its value statement is the ability to send any amount of money, anywhere in the world, for very cheap, without asking anyones permission, and have the transaction be irreversibly settled within a few minutes. And then follow that thread all the way back to the fact that the future blockchain(s) all of these future uses are built on are going to be continuations of the most valuable blockchains of today because valuable blockchains are a prerequisite for the data integrity required for high value use cases. Even a war on drugs, which has a physical element, isnt being won by central gov. He said Bitcoin is stupid and speculative. Justin C MMM i normally love your articles but you knew this one would be polarizing Im sure. I'm sure this had nothing to do with their personal stake in the outcome." I dont think Bitcoin will be very snuggly. Let them hold on to their fiat currency if they like to. Why does bitcoin have to be the winner? Except for ripple coin. I think we can all agree a cure for cancer is immensely valuable to society (blockchain may or may not be, we still have to see), however, how much is a Cancer-Pill worth? I am not trying to be friends with anyone here, but only debating an one sided article that seems to be trashing something that is unique and precious according to me. I did Control F, and verified that MMM never used the word Ponzi or Pyramid, and in fact Vijay, you were the first person to bring up the Ponzi Scheme topic, and then you linked some article (which I did not care to read). January 3, 2018, 12:48 pm. People only invested in it because it was an internet company and investing in internet companies can make you rich overnight. You cannot create more coins than are programmed to ever exist. Could you please tell us what you are invested in and when you got in? November 20, 2018, 12:00 pm, so other storage is NOT needed sorry, my phone likes to randomly delete words, Tor Kristen Haugen Just because the last while has been great, it wont always be that way. I 100% agree with what Vijay has been saying. A bit frothy? No one can say for sure whether or not the problems can be resolved and a highly transactable and stable currency may emerge. So, please dont keep repeating this Blockchain is great but bitcoin is not bullshit! All these ICOs are just insane. Satoshi, the founder, sits on 10% but he has never spent a single cent. Its the last one! Or the cars people use to haul that stuff then. January 11, 2018, 4:23 am. I am so happy to see this article! Couldnt have said it any better myself. At the present time, stock index funds are priced more irrationally and speculatively high than gold is. They get to sell me their give cards at a discount and I get to buy stuff from Amazon for cheaper. obsolete. Hopefully someone else will go through this in 2023 and fill us in on the value then. It certainly is for day traders in short term. https://www.amazon.com/giftcardscams/b?ie=UTF8&node=15435487011, Ryan Schaap Bro, we get ityou want to wipe your butt with germ-infested cash. While I was in Kenya, the central bank had capped rates at 14%. Everything is awesome, we cannot fail, it is great! Maybe you are suggesting that in the future Bitcoin will be just as good or better than Fiat, but thats speculation. The poorest in Sub-Saharan Africa earns the same money that you sitting in Manhattan, NY do. And of course, the purpose of this whole aside is that I want to establish credibility with you, so you will give this article some consideration. If you ever want to see what a real bubble looks like, please look at a long term chart of stocksor dollars for that matterpriced in gold. The Money Mustache Community . Because it is. Networking. MMM has clearly thought about this more than most, however I think people would need to read more than this post to completely dismiss that a current crypto will have long term value. They know him as Mr. Money Mustache -- a gentleman who retired at the ripe age of 30 without a million-dollar salary. Shut up, just send me $100 via PayPal and Ill send you a bag of my fingernail clippings. FriendlyPoster Theres illegal activity in all its shapes and forms (ie. I think that the point being missed in all of this is NOT that people want to evade taxes, but that they are being screwed backwards & forwards by the banks (& the tax evaders-in-chief that run them). :), https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/941500121564332032, farmecologist All this bullshit about backed by faith and credit of my country goes out of the window when currencies die someday. So many things about Bitcoin and altcoins are patently ridiculous once you take a step back from the tulip mania and look at what is really happening. Im in the same boat where I dont understand it and it doesnt make sense to me in the real world. Now the ball has reached proportions where it could blow up anytime, and people in this forum are talking about the small change like the bubble and P/E ratio in the stock market. Barak PazTal The financial strategist has established a large audience by favoring slower-paced bets on surer outcomes over cryptocurrency's notorious high-risk-high-reward scenarios. Ten years later and the price is still nowhere near that prior high, with it currently trading around $60. MMMers have unplugged from debt, but putting all faith in the designers of The Matrix seems ironic. This will go down in history as the DUMBEST thing Mr. Money Mustache has ever written.it honestly pisses me off how dishonest he is and his he cant see the big picture out of his Statist status quo lenses. A currency that unstable cant be realistically used for transactions, even if you forget about its other limitations. January 5, 2018, 11:59 am. Like a piece of a profitable business or a rentable piece of real estate. But its likely just down the toilet. January 3, 2018, 7:20 am, If you could have somehow monetised the Internet in 1992 and sold it. I can leave the country with it if the government ever gets out of hand (I cant do that with gold or cash since it will likely be confiscated or banks be frozen). All I had to do was sell the integrity of my blog for $100 non-bitcoin bucks (via PayPal of course.) The car still has value to you, but my Ive lost nearly a quarter of my trade through no fault of my own. But thats just the start. Most people understand nothing apart from my friend bought some BTC for $5k last month and now theyre worth $20k. Shit. I promise you, the US Government is knees deep in the blockchain and is monitoring everything. No govt is just going to let the ability to control their economy be taken away from them. I feel anything worth putting money in should, in broad over-simplified terms at least, be comprehensible even to a simpleton like me. (which is more Mustachian..), Michelle, Mr Buffetts advice is clearly correct I mean, its Warren Buffett were talking about. You have to start thinking several steps ahead at once, like trying to imagine twitch.com in 1990. However, in 2004 when Facebook was being launched it was looked at as a funny little friend site. Your highly emotional responses arent helping your case. In this way, dollars are the ultimate speculation. A prescient article, but unfortunately, those of us that have investigated Bitcoin and come to the same conclusions(no interest in speculation, possibly completely value-less) must continue to put up with the Bitcoin bulls, and as seen in this comment section, they are extremely bullish. Assuming you can know the exact price of a commodity on a given day is speculative, yes. So no, its not a Ponzi or Pyramid scheme, but its no better than taking a spin down the Vegas Strip either. It will be difficult to predict what comes in this rapidly evolving space. When you see nothing but nothing in your banking/investment future you start to look outside of the dark box youve been dumped in. :) If youd like a link, just holler! My Take: Cryptocurrencies have A LOT of problems currently. Many African countries have central banks. Personally, I disagree that speculating is inherently bad. Most MMM readers recognize that there is a serious flaw within the system which is why most of us just reject it. January 2, 2018, 6:30 pm. Facebook is probably the 4th or 5th legitimate social media platform. Ryan Thomas as well as all legal forms of private sales (ie. Gold has the 2 most important properties to make it function as money, scarcity and intrinsic value. In short, historically gold is the truest measure of value, the safest store of wealth, and best insurance against fiat money and other manias (see Weimar Republic circa 1934). That is wrong. Those Adults you referred to in your article had the trust and lost it with their actions. Use this 500K wisely and make our planet better! I agree with you. The only reason you would be staying in is that you would hopefully still be able to find a bigger sucker when you finally do unload. Funny, I was recently approached to put up a sponsored post talking up the virtues of Bitcoin. But observing long term norms of valuation and noticing when they are out of whack is not called being speculative. They cant use these gift cards. Guys. February 21, 2022, 8:04 am. There are dozens more data points just like these. Rule of thumb is never put everything in one basket. It's natural to just look at the price itself and how much it's . Michael Bitcoin and altcoins consume a ridiculous amount of energy. I am smiling because Im content to let others gamble. It is subject to crazes and manias. Use the blockchain to store the state of running programs and you can create publicly verifiable and trustworthy (because they require none as they operate publicly and transparently) applications that can interact with money. January 3, 2018, 8:06 am. This results in a silent crash, and a loss in purchasing power for stock holderseven if the nominal price of stocks remains the same. So with all that in mind, I wouldnt worry too much about the current Shiller P/E number. So, all of the normal, previous ways of saving have been destroyed & the banks/corrupt bankers get bailed out, over & over & the regular people are sick of it. NOTHING HAPPENS! ), but to include gold bullion is not quite fair. But just to provoke you, I would ask you this question: What IS money?!? Gox, Bitfinex, and the various wallets and exchanges that have been hacked). Why is the author so angry about this fact? Calling bitcoin stupid is shortsighted, and is usually what I here from people who missed out while I made money hand over fist in 2017. No one person has control over it and that may end up being a good thing (people are corruptible). Redirecting to /r/mrmoneymustache/comments/mz1sma/thoughts_on_mmm_why_bitcoin_is_stupid/h094ynt (308) January 3, 2018, 12:17 pm, The last 10% of possible wins are better left to the idiots. Investors who valued Apple and Microsoft and rich now and that is not because they spotted a Ponzi scheme. You can keep saying its a bubble for eternity. Amazing that simple addition and subtraction can escape these great financial minds, so perceptive of macroeconomics. The real test of if you should be a cryptocurrency supporter:would you be exactly as passionate and spend the same amount of time thinking about it,if Bitcoin were still an obscure piece of code, worth less than one cent, and offered no chance of ever earning you any money? So you are further wagering that Bitcoin will literally supplant the USD as the world medium of financial exchange, and frankly, that is kinda bonkers. Furthermore, I would like to emphasize that for Bitcoin (used here to refer to generic cyrptocurrencies) to become useful in an everyday sense, I would never need to change out of Bitcoin and into another currency, such as USD. That is what has happened twice this century already, and could very well happen again. As platforms. Except for the chances of winning the Powerball vs a worthwhile project with (already) proven potential and mainstream bank adoption like Ripple that was mentioned knocking multiple years from your FIRE date are not the same. Please please please get out of that fund and invest it all in a low fee index fund! Anytime someone says they are investing in Bitcoin, I have to laugh. An investment then would not be considered wasteful now. Educate yourself on Lightning Network or layer 2 protocols of Bitcoin. Bond *prices* are higher than ever today, which is the reciprocal of them having a high yield. They always do. This is so weak. Stay on the sidelines. This is the greatest use of human energy and capital the world has ever seen. Im interested to see how this plays out. Bitcoin and other Cryptos are attractive for that reason and that why people spread this misinformation about it to sway people from backing it. It seems like youre advocating for scenario #2. Im just curious what your motivations are for all your comments. And the digital assets which are currently little more than digital currencies no one uses will be required to process and write data to the public blockchains. Thank you! Basically Mr. Money Mustache seems to not see anything beyond the Federal Reserve and the toilet paper this private bank of the elite churns out! Many more rants when the price of internet companies skyrocketed even though there was no evidence of current or future profits, and many more people claiming there was no ceiling because the internet revolutionizes how businesses operate and profits dont matter. Id much rather invest in shares of Ripple Inc than in XRP. The other argument for Bitcoins value is that there will only ever be 21 million of them, and they will eventually replace all other world currencies, or at least become the new gold, so the fundamental value is either the entire worlds GDP or at least the total value of all gold, divided by 21 million. I am Mr. Money Mustache, mild mannered retired-at-30 software engineer who later became accidental leader of Ironic Cult of Mustachianism. Think about how many leaps needed to be made for someone in 1990 to believe such a thing was possible. Bitcoin 2.0 is already here, people just dont know it yet. That would be like saying corn is a speculation or coffee is a speculation. (Now, as you mentioned, it is most likely just speculation driven by greed). I agree with MMM that cryptocurrency in general is kind of dubious, and that Bitcoin is a particularly stupid implementation of it. Me personally, Im betting on the buck. Think that would fly at the grocery store? Remember Altavista, Boo, Aol and Geocities, should I have bought those you mean? The value of bitcoin is very far removed from any sensible fundamental valuation, and the thing driving up the price seems to be a common sense that it will be worth more in the future. You can give up that wet dream right now. Making government efficient and effective for the people is noble as well. That is where we are with Bitcoins. Either way I dont think youve fully connected the dots as to why it has value. Trust yes. If they had money in gold they could have mitigated some of the affects of the politicians and bureaucrats in those countries (and the IMF). I dare you to look it up! Guess what, we can automate all of those jobs with cryptocurrencies. The vast majority of the companies trying to monetize the internet failed. I am already looking forward to looking back and laughing at all the companies who did away with their normal businesses to become mining companies. Mr. Butler TomTX, you can take a horse to the Pond but you certainly cannot make it Drink! Under certain tax-related assumptions dividend policy is irrelevant to the value of a firm says one of the Modigliani Miller theorems. This is why bitcoin was created in the first place. Seeing ATMs shows that it is slowly on the cusp of becoming more widely adapted and accepted. Volunteerism could get you only so far, but the data could only ever be as safe as the amount of resources it takes to break the system. 1. People suffer immensely. Even as these banks show SKY-HIGH PROFITS, they mostly evade their share of tax via loopholes. I saw a few currencies try out Proof of Stake, like Ark, where the holders of the currency choose who they want to do the mining. Yes, there are still many kinks to be worked out with BTC and there is still too much volatility for it to be taken seriously as stable currency. But thats just the software side (Blockchain). drugs, prostitution, gambling, etc.) Many are trying to perfect it but until there is a clear winner, different ones will emerge. Andre Kostolany. But if you have some play money, it doesnt hurt to speculate if that is what you enjoy doing and dont mind losing everything you put in. Its totally different when you lose your money by yourself. You gotta have it. There is some potential in the future for the blockchain technology but we are just so early that its hard to pick winners. This separation is important becausethe usefulness of Blockchain is the primary justification people use for the big dumb Bitcoin lottery. Speculating on bitcoin for this reason only really works so long as there is some new greater fool who joins in on the speculation after you have bought. (a Case Study), https://medium.com/p/81f5ffa42deb?source=linkShare-6c666494704c-1516693614, https://www.statista.com/statistics/326707/bitcoin-price-index/, https://globalnews.ca/news/3977745/ethereum-blockchain-canada-nrc/, https://prestonbyrne.com/2017/12/08/bitcoin_ponzi/, https://seekingalpha.com/article/4134745-bitcoins-path-1-million-bubble-bursting-anytime-soon, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g-zIbVEjVpQ, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aeMv9uKpAZg, https://www.cryptocompare.com/mining/calculator/btc?HashingPower=190&HashingUnit=MH%2Fs&PowerConsumption=1293&CostPerkWh=0.12, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_mania, http://contrarianedge.com/2017/12/01/bitcoin-millennials-fake-gold/, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_debt_of_the_United_States. Adeney retired from his job as a software engineer in 2005 at age 30 by spending only a small percentage of his annual salary and consistently investing the remainder, primarily in stock market index funds. Tim Beck I am beginning to get it Mattheus. April 2, 2018, 7:38 am. Thanks, MMM! Mustachianism the mental training that gets you to very early financial freedom requires you to evaluate inefficiencies in our culture and call bullshit upon them. Max Your Freedom Then the mining ist just looking up data in this table. How else should people behave? With BTC, how would a nation function and have institutions that protect its people? The internet is awesome, but once in a while a bubble arises and this time virtual currencies is about to pop! That in turn creates tax revenue, prosperity in a worrying economy for peoples investment portfolios, etc. Youre 100% right that fiat currency is only good when people trust itand that trust could be ZERO. Hi Financialindependence.. In my opinion crypto prices are ahead of their real use value today as they factor in the potential. A blockchain without an inbuilt cryptocurrency is yet to prove itself as viable and secure. Transaction fees on the DASH network are effectively 0. Evidently you werent invested in Pets.com and other rising stars with no hope of ever getting profitable. Ive been investing steadily over a 20 year period. That means an implied 100% cash-on-cash return every year. The response was amazing and, unfortunately, there were simply to many to include them all. Mr. MMM talking about herd mentality should take a look at their own followers and himself. In order to have decentralization, there needs to be an incentive for people to commit resources to running the network. Its like trying to say Bank A is better then Z Bank because it has a fancy new way of getting money. Why the hell would you have an intermediary like that when buying bitcoins? A serious flaw within the system effectively worthless just send me $ 100 via PayPal of course )! Boat where I dont think youve fully connected the dots as to it. Earns the same money that you sitting in Manhattan, NY do index funds are more... 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